We haven’t written anything about bitcoin for a long time, because the scenario of our publication from October 21 of this year is still being worked out:
“… So the maximum of a year has been updated.
The most cautious sold at the peak of quotations, and now they are tormented by doubts whether they were in a hurry.
Probably a little hasty.
After all, the maximum of the year at 64810 is the first significant growth goal, the chances of stopping at the level of which are not very high due to accumulated optimism.
The probability of a pullback at the technical resistance level of 68058 is higher, since the volatility target has been worked out, and those who bought at the highs of the year will already compensate for the drawdown and earn a little. Moreover, the memory of former losses presses on them…”
It all happened.
The affairs of the past days, of course, are interesting, but the question arises: what to do now?
And now we need to buy again. Because it was not a collapse and not a crash, but just a technical correction, on which some traders recorded profits, and investment whales increased their positions at reasonable prices.
We have been writing about the next growth goal for a long time, but we will repeat it again: this is the technical level of long-term resistance of 81400.
And what about the correction, what are the prospects for its completion?
The correction tested the lower boundary of the medium-term trend channel at the support of 45986. At the peak, prices, of course, went lower, but these are nerves, quotes still did not go beyond the confidence interval at the level of 41186. Moreover, the zone of the level of long-term stops at 29820 is completely safe.
According to the prospects for the completion of the correction, the following can be said.
Since the market has not left the medium-term trend channels, we will judge the completion of the correction by the behavior of quotes within the short-term trend.
The December breakthrough of the lower limit of the volatility channel of the short-term trend shown in the figure ended with the return of quotes to the channel, testing of the lower limit of the channel from above and the resumption of growth in the channel.
And although due to the inertia of the indicators, the medium—term trend still remains in the downward movement phase, but since its goals have been realized, and the short-term and weekly trends indicate an increase in quotations, the conclusion is unambiguous – BUY.
And if purchases at the beginning of December were associated with increased risk due to the uncertainty of the situation, now the probability of further decline in quotations has significantly decreased.
Note that our range robot has not stopped buying, and although open positions are at a loss, but, according to our expectations, they have good prospects with a total risk of 20%.
Resistance levels: 64810, 66893, 68058, 81400.
Support levels: 47566, 37148, 34972, 28702, 22413.
The analysis is based on the indicators of the SWT method. All published materials and graphics reflect the personal opinion of the author and cannot be a call, direct or indirect, to make transactions on the market.